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We wanted to provide insights into the current state of the Australian housing market, particularly regarding the forecasts for the remainder of 2024.
As a mortgage broker deeply entrenched in this dynamic sector, we believe it’s crucial to stay informed about the prevailing trends and forecasts shaping our industry.
Current State of the Australian Housing Market
The Australian housing market holds immense significance, with the nation’s residential housing stock valued at a staggering $10.4 trillion as of late 2023, as per the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Despite facing headwinds such as interest rate hikes, the property market has showcased resilience, rebounding from the downturn experienced in 2022. One of the primary drivers behind this resilience has been the robust demand for housing, fueled largely by population growth. This demand, coupled with constrained housing supply, has served as a buffer against the effects of higher interest rates and challenges in housing affordability.
However, as we look ahead to the remainder of 2024, there is a notable divergence in forecasts among economists and experts.
The uncertainty surrounding the trajectory of interest rates, coupled with broader economic indicators, has led to varying predictions for the property market’s performance in the coming months. Domain. for instance, has forecasted national house price rises ranging from 5 to 7 per cent for 2024.
Specific projections for key cities include Sydney (7 to 9 per cent), Brisbane and Adelaide (7 to 8 per cent), Perth (6 to 7 per cent), Canberra (3 to 5 percent), and Melbourne and Hobart (2 to 4 per cent). The potential impact of interest rate movements remains a significant point of discussion. A decrease in interest rates could potentially stimulate demand and activity within the housing market, positively influencing consumer sentiment and driving increased housing activity, possibly towards the end of 2024.
While some regions, such as regional Victoria, have witnessed relatively stable prices with recent upward movements, Melbourne’s market has experienced a slower recovery compared to other capital cities. Despite unexpected price rises defying earlier predictions of a downturn, affordability challenges may moderate future growth unless there’s a significant shift in interest rates. Looking further ahead, predicting housing prices in 2030 remains a challenge due to the multitude of factors at play, including global economics, government policies, and population growth.
Despite ongoing debates about the affordability of Australian housing and concerns about overvaluation, the market has shown resilience and adaptability in the face of various challenges. As we navigate the intricacies of the Australian housing market, it’s essential to remain vigilant, adapt to changing conditions, and provide tailored solutions to meet the diverse needs of our clients.
If you have any questions or would like to discuss how these forecasts may impact your specific situation, please reach out to us on 03 9075 0000.
